In one aspect, rice production world-wide has been hugely hurt by a severe drought taking place in Australia, preventing a massive amount of rice from being grown and harvested. As one of the largest rice exporting countries in the world, this drastic shortage means that countries who rely heavily on imports, such as Indonesia, China and the Koreas aren’t getting the rice imports they require, and are therefore stockpiling all of the rice they are producing themselves for their own populations, regulating against any exporting.
Another aspect is that a growing standard of living in massive countries such as India and China means that millions of more people are now consuming more meat. In order to supply this growing demand for meat more animals need to be raised and processed, which leads to a huge increase in the demand for grains, and what we consider “cereal” crops, such as corn and millet. Inevitably, the price for these grains is growing with the demand.
On the other side of the big pond, the United States (and much of Europe) are investing heavily in bio-fuel technologies, such as ethanol. In order to stimulate the potential for rapid adoption of bio-fuel technologies as an alternative to oil (and perhaps more importantly to win over the Midwestern swing-states during political campaigns), the US Congress and the European Union are pumping massive amounts of subsidies into the promotion of crops such as corn. This new and growing market for corn and other grains is supporting a rapid increase for prices of these grains in the US and Europe, which in turn promotes a rapid increase of prices across the world market.
a corn field
On top of all this, as I’m sure you have noticed, oil prices have gone through the roof, approaching nearly $200 per barrel. As I’m sure you are aware, this rapid increase in the price of oil has affected nearly every industry across the planet, especially if the industry has any kind of transportation involved. Airlines, shipping companies and trucking companies are experiencing sky-rocketing fuel costs for the transport of any and all goods.
If I’m not mistaken, this global phenomenon is mostly affecting the US in terms of transportation. People are biking more and driving less. Predicted sales for gas-guzzling SUVs have dropped into critically low numbers. The auto industry, especially GM and Ford are basically at a loss in terms of how to revamp their fleet to produce more efficient cars. People aren’t flying very much if they don’t have to, leading to mergers between airlines such as Continental and Delta as they try to save their already financially disrupted industry.
And overall, people just aren’t traveling as much as they used to, or as much as they would like. Amusement parks and national parks alike are seeing a shortage of visitors this year as some people just can’t afford to get their car out of the driveway if they really don’t have to.
What we are experiencing here is a bit different. This is where it gets a bit technical.
Countries in West Africa, like most other places in the developing world, are experiencing a situation where the education standards are rising just enough that many people, at least boys, are able to attend some sort of school and graduate. Granted, they might not actually graduate until they are around 25 because they take years off to work at home or just because the school systems are constantly changing things around, but for the most part, men have a growing opportunity to get an education. When they graduate from school they don’t want to live in their villages anymore, but are instead drawn to the ideas and dreams of living in a big city, such as Dakar, Freetown, or even Banjul (the capital of Gambia).
Unfortunately there really isn’t a need for all this influx of workers to these cities, as their industries really aren’t growing at a pace able to keep up with the amount of people looking for jobs. So, what you find is that cities such as Dakar, Freetown and Banjul have a large and growing population of young men (in their 20s) who are fresh out of school looking for jobs. While this situation is leading to problems such as over-crowded cities, homelessness and sex tourism, my main point in sharing this with you is that there is a huge population making just enough money to get by, able to afford just enough food.
On the other end of the spectrum, people living and around villages like mine are subsistence farmers. The farmers I am working with are able to grow just enough food to feed their families from one growing season to the next. While some improvements with this situation are happening (which is also the main focus of the work I and other Peace Corps volunteers are doing here), farmers can only plant enough corn, rice and coos to get by eating for the year and save some as seeds for the next growing season. Gambian farmers used to be able to rely on exporting the groundnuts they sell to the world market for a steady yearly income. However, as other countries expand groundnut production Gambia can’t keep up. Moreover, the world demand for groundnuts from Gambia has collapsed, and so has its price. Just a few years ago a farmer used to be able to sell a 50 kilo bag of groundnuts for around 1200 delasis (or $60 U.S. dollars). This year, however, they were only able to sell a bag for about 600d. (a bit of a drop, if I do say so myself) So what we have is a situation of growing urban areas, just making it by, on the one hand, and subsistence farmers with a steadily decreasing income on the other.
a baby groundnut (peanut) plant
For the past several years this situation has been offset by the fact that governments of countries such as Gambia and Senegal have subsidized the price of imported rice. They were able to keep it artificially low so that their low-income population would still be able to afford rice as a staple food to their diet, especially in the urban areas where the people aren’t relying on farming for their own food source. Moreover, even in the rural areas farmers were able to make enough from selling their groundnuts (despite the loss of value) to still afford the imported rice. Over a span of about 30 years, imported rice became a significant staple food item into people’s diet across the country.
That’s changed.
So, back to the rice shortage and increasing grain prices I mentioned earlier. The fact that Australia is suffering from a drought that has been going on for several years and taken out their rice production, along with the fact that more wealthy rice-consuming countries (China, Indonesia, Koreas, Vietnam) are creating policies against the export of rice, means there is a drastic shortage of rice that can actually be imported to West African countries, including Gambia. The skyrocketing grain prices in Western countries has made it nearly impossible for West African countries to be able to afford subsidizing the rice, or any other grain for that matter, imported into these countries, meaning these skyrocketing prices will inevitably be passed on to the consumer… people just making it by.
On top of it all, the “through the roof” oil prices means that organizations such as the World Food Program, which help provide lunches for schools across many of these developing countries, including Gambia, did not expect such a drastic increase in the shipping (oil) costs for distribution. For this fiscal year, the World Food Program is estimating around $500 million in unexpected and unbudgeted costs, because the synonymous increase of prices for goods all-around was not expected to the extent is has reached. Moreover, as the World Food Program also helps provide food to refugee camps and displaced peoples around the world, they are facing critical ethical dilemmas of where they can continue their work and where they must make budget cuts. From what I understand, the World Food Program is phasing-out its assistance to The Gambia over the next two to four years. That’s not going to be a good day.
a rice field
Furthermore, the rice currently imported to this country is only going to be subsidized through September. The national government here has made it very clear that they cannot afford to offer assistance with this situation after September because it will just be too expensive. They will incrementally increasing the price of a bag of rice to around 1000 delasis per 50 kilo bag in order to help “sensitize” people to the rising costs (it was around 650 delasis when I got here last September), and then it will be completely up to the world market. Costs are only expected to skyrocket with oil.
So, basically what we have is a growing population reliant on cheap imported rice as a main food item that will not be able to afford to eat it past September, if they can even afford to eat it now. While they used to be able to sell a bag of groundnuts for two bags of rice, this equation has now flipped.
So what is to be done?
Fortunately, the people I am working and living with are subsistence farmers who are used to eating what they grow. We have had community meetings to discuss this situation and the overall reaction is “Well, we used to grow and eat coos more than rice, so we will just have to do that again.” It’s a pretty good reaction.
Peace Corps volunteers here are trying to help introduce different methods of inter-cropping in order to get more food from the same amount of space. (such as beans and corn together) We are introducing different kinds of fertilizer methods to help increase yields. (such as an interesting urine-based fertilizer they can make on their own) And we have even tried introducing and promoting a line of rice called NERICA rice. It is an improved line developed by the Taiwanese that, under the right conditions, should have much larger yields and smaller growing cycles (about 80 days) than the rice they are used to growing for themselves.
NERICA Rice
All things considered, as long as the rainy season is good, the people around me should still be able to grow enough to get by.
That’s not the case for everyone, though. Urban areas, such as Dakar and Freetown, have already experienced food riots protesting the government over their inability to afford food. And there’s nothing to say that kind of reaction won’t happen here in The Gambia after September. As tightly as some countries may like to control the security of their countries, when people are hungry, or even starving, they will take on desperate measures.
Personally, I’m not expecting much of a strong reaction this coming year. For various reasons, I think people will be able to make it by and get enough food to meet their needs. However, I am more skeptical about next year. If people don’t have a good growing season and end up having to eat the seeds they set aside to grow the next year, that will only enhance the already growing potential for a devastating food crisis.
So what will happen as the rice shortage continues, combined with rising grain and oil prices? You’re prediction is as good as mine, maybe better. But one thing is for sure, people, both in the United States and in developing countries, will be going hungry. Sorry to end on such a downer, but that’s just the way an unequal world works. Some people can’t afford to fill their SUV for a summer road trip to the Grand Canyon. Other people can’t afford to feed their families.
